Bitcoin (BTC) has been attempting to interrupt above the $20,500 resistance for the previous 35 days, with the newest failed try on Oct. 6. In the meantime, bears have displayed energy on 4 totally different events after BTC examined ranges under $18,500 throughout that interval.

Bitcoin/USD worth index, 12-hour chart. Supply: TradingView

Traders are nonetheless not sure whether or not $18,200 was actually the underside as a result of the help stage weakens every time it’s examined. That’s the reason it’s essential for bulls to maintain the momentum throughout this week’s $510 million choices expiry.

The Oct. 21 choices expiry is particularly related as a result of Bitcoin bears can revenue $80 million by suppressing BTC under $19,000.

Bears positioned their bets at $19,000 and decrease

The open curiosity for the Oct. 21 choices expiry is $510 million, however the precise determine might be decrease since bears have been overly-optimistic. These merchants fully missed the mark inserting bearish bets at $17,500 and decrease after BTC dumped under $19,000 on Oct. 13.

Bitcoin choices mixture open curiosity for Oct. 21. Supply: CoinGlass

The 0.77 call-to-put ratio exhibits the dominance of the $290 million put (promote) open curiosity in opposition to the $220 million name (purchase) choices. However, as Bitcoin stands close to $19,000, most bearish bets will doubtless grow to be nugatory.

If Bitcoin’s worth stays above $19,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Oct. 21, solely 4% of those put (promote) choices might be obtainable. This distinction occurs as a result of a proper to promote Bitcoin at $18,000 or $19,000 is nugatory if BTC trades above that stage on expiry.

Bulls can nonetheless flip the desk and safe a $150 million revenue

Under are the 4 probably eventualities primarily based on the present worth motion. The variety of Bitcoin options contracts obtainable on Oct. 21 for name (bull) and put (bear) devices varies, relying on the expiry worth. The imbalance favoring either side constitutes the theoretical revenue:

  • Between $18,000 and $19,000: 0 calls vs. 4,300 places. The web outcome favors the put (bear) devices by $80 million.
  • Between $19,000 and $20,000: 1,500 calls vs. 1,100 places. The web result’s balanced between calls and places.
  • Between $20,000 and $21,000: 4,300 calls vs. 100 places. The web outcome favors the decision (bull) devices by $85 million.
  • Between $21,000 and $22,000: 7,200 calls vs. 0 places. The web outcome favors the decision (bull) devices by $150 million.

This crude estimate considers the put choices utilized in bearish bets and the decision choices completely in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards extra advanced funding methods.

For instance, a dealer may have offered a put possibility, successfully gaining constructive publicity to Bitcoin above a selected worth, however sadly, there isn’t any simple method to estimate this impact.

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A number of extra dips under $19,000 wouldn’t be shocking

Bitcoin bears have to push the worth under $19,000 to safe an $80 million revenue. Then again, the bulls’ best-case state of affairs requires a pump above $21,000 to flip the tables and rating a $150 million acquire.

Bitcoin bulls had $80 million in leveraged lengthy positions liquidated on Oct. 12 and Oct. 13, so they need to have much less margin than is required to drive the worth larger. Consequently, bears have larger odds of pinning BTC under $19,000 forward of the Oct. 21 weekly choices expiry.